Rosstat: Russia’s GDP drops 7.9% in 2009

RIA NOVOSTI. Last year the gross domestic product in the Russian Federation, based on preliminary estimates, contracted 7.9%, while, according to the latest updated forecast, the contraction should have been deeper (8.5%), the Federal Statistics Service reported. “In line with preliminary estimates, Russia’s GDP totaled Rub 39.01 tln in current prices, accounting for 92.1% of the 2008 indicator. The GDP deflator for 2009 came in at 102.7% compared to 2008 prices,” the statistical authority reported.

For the record, Russia’s GDP grew 5.6% in 2008.

The Federal Statistics Service recorded the sharpest contraction in economic activity last year in such sector as other public utility, social and personal services where real GDP and gross added value declined 18.3%. In second place in terms of a recession last year was the construction sector, down 16.4% vs. 11.9% expansion in 2008. Restaurants and hotels rank third in terms of the pace of contraction, down 15.4% (up 10.7% in 2008).

In addition, state administration, military security and mandatory social insurance grew at the pace seen in 2008, rising 3.2% (3% in 2008). Also, modest growth was seen in health care and social services, a 0.6% rise (flat in 2008).

Wholesaling and retailing, repair of vehicles and motorcycles, household and personal use items declined 8.3% (a 9.5% surge in 2008), mineral extraction dropped 1.9% (a 0.1% rise), while processing facilities reported a 13.9% decline (a 0.2% increase). Real GDP and gross added value in electric power, gas and water generation and distribution contracted 6%.

The Ministry for Economic Development forecasts GDP to grow 3.1% this year if oil trades at $65 a barrel. This estimate is approximately equal to the WB forecast (3.2% expansion), but if oil goes for $76/bbl. In 2011 Russian authorities expect GDP to grow 3.4% and 4.2% in 2012, with oil trading at $70 and $71 per barrel. In addition, in line with the WB forecast, in 2011 the Russian economy will grow at a slower pace despite an anticipated rise in oil prices to $76.6 a barrel.

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